An operating data aggregator module collects a first set of operating data and a second set of operating data for building equipment. A model generator module generates a first set of model coefficients and a second set of model coefficients for a predictive model for the building equipment using the first set of operating data and the second set of operating data, respectively. A test statistic module generates a test statistic based on a difference between the first set of model coefficients and the second set of model coefficients. A critical value module calculates critical value for the test statistic. A hypothesis testing module compares the test statistic with the critical value using a statistical hypothesis test to determine whether the predictive model has changed. In response to a determination that the predictive model has changed, a fault indication may be generated and/or the predictive model may be adaptively updated.