Various embodiments of the invention provide methods, systems, and computer-program products for pacing outbound calls placed by a predictive dialer in a contact center. Specifically, an ensemble made up of a global predictive model and a local predictive model is applied to each dialing record found in a plurality of dialing records to provide a probability of an outbound call placed to the dialing record resulting in a live connect. Accordingly, a call pacing hit ratio can then be calculated based on the probability for each of the dialing records and this call pacing hit ratio can be used by a predictive dialer in various embodiments to more accurately pace the placing of outbound calls then by using conventionally derived call pacing hit ratios.