A system and method for optimizing the estimation and management of wear and replacement for an array of storage devices in a storage system is disclosed. An input/output workload is monitored over part of a service period for the array. An expected wear rate is determined, based on the workload and an endurance of the storage devices. A target wear rate is calculated for the service period and each of one or more contingency periods, based on the expected wear rate and a specified risk tolerance for each period. In response to determining that the expected wear rate exceeds the target wear rate calculated for at least one of the service period and the contingency period(s), an adjusted wear rate is calculated for the array of storage devices to match the target wear rate. A replacement schedule is generated for the array based on the adjusted wear rate.