Techniques for estimating social content interactions are provided. An example method includes determining counts of one or more user interactions with one or more content items created by an author, each user interaction of the one or more user interactions having an associated time, classifying, based on respective associated times of the user interactions, the determined counts of the user interactions with the content items into predetermined time intervals spanning a first duration, computing an engagement model for the author based on the classified counts corresponding to the predetermined time intervals and a number of the content items created by the author and estimating, at a particular time for a second duration, a number of interactions with a particular content item created by the author based on the engagement model and a determined actual number of interactions with the particular content item.