The present invention relates to the identification of a person having risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) by determining the presence or absence of specific genes, gene clusters, genera or species of bacteria in the person's gastrointestinal microbiota. More specifically the invention relates to a model to identify an individual having or at risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) using metagenomic clusters (MGCs), wherein said model is characterized by using different metagenomic clusters for different population groups. Also provided is the use of such a model in the identification of a person having risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2D).