A technique for optimizing metal extrusion process parameters includes receiving values representing properties of an extrusion press machine, and calculating an estimated surface exit temperature of a metal work product resulting from an extrusion of a metal billet using the extrusion press machine based on the machine property values, an initial temperature of the metal billet prior to the extrusion, an extrusion force applied to the metal billet during the extrusion, and an extrusion speed of the metal work product. The estimated surface exit temperature of the metal work product is compared with a target hot shortness exit temperature of the metal work product. The initial temperature of the metal billet, the extrusion speed, and the extrusion force are changed based on the comparison until the estimated surface exit temperature equals the target hot shortness exit temperature.