In one embodiment, a computing system receives an indication of current mobile device usage by a user. The user is also associated with one or more past user states that are accessible to the computing system. The computing system selects a future user state of the user based on a calculated probability of a possible future user state. The possible future user state is calculated based on the current mobile-device usage and the past user states. For each past user states, a weight based on a time delay factor is used. Based on the selected future user state, the operation of a mobile device of the user is adapted at the future time corresponding to the future user state.