The present disclosure provides systems and methods for predicting the occurrence of an outbreak of an infectious disease. One such method includes acquiring environmental risk factor data associated with a particular disease, wherein the environmental risk factor data corresponds to a particular geographic region; acquiring social risk factor data associated with the particular disease; applying a prediction algorithm to the environmental and social risk factor data to generate a disease risk model for generating at least a trigger prediction and a transmission prediction for a disease-causing pathogen at the particular geographic region; generating the trigger prediction by applying the disease risk model to a forecast of data for a first lead time for the particular geographic region; and/or generating the transmission prediction by applying the disease risk model to the transmission prediction for a second lead time for the particular geographic region. Other methods and systems are also provided.