公开(公告)号：US11080764B2

公开(公告)日：2021-08-03

申请号：US15458484

申请日：2017-03-14

Applicant: ADOBE INC.

Inventor： Chen Dong ,  Zhenyu Yan ,  Pinak Panigrahi ,  Xiang Wu ,  Abhishek Pani

IPC: G06Q30/02 ,  G06N7/00 ,  G06F16/951 ,  G06F16/245 ,  G06Q30/08

Abstract: A bid management system generates estimated performance metrics at the bid unit level to facilitate bid optimization. The bid management system includes a hierarchical feature selection and prediction approach. Feature selection is performed by aggregating historical performance metrics to a higher hierarchical level and testing features for statistical significance. Features for which a significance level satisfies a significance threshold are selected for prediction analysis. The prediction analysis uses a statistical model based on selected features to generate estimated performance metrics at the bid unit level. In some implementations, the prediction analysis uses a hierarchical Bayesian smoothing method in which estimated performance metrics are calculated at the bid unit level using a posterior probability distribution derived from a prior probability distribution determined based on aggregated performance metrics and a likelihood function that takes into account historical performance metrics from the bid unit level based on the selected features.