公开(公告)号：US20240047079A1

公开(公告)日：2024-02-08

申请号：US17960849

申请日：2022-10-06

Applicant: FOUNDATION OF SOONGSIL UNIVERSITY-INDUSTRY COOPERATION

Inventor： Minhae KWON ,  Sujin AHN

IPC: G16H50/80

CPC classification number: G16H50/80

Abstract: A system for estimating for infectious disease transmission includes: a parameter receiving unit that constructs a discrete-time Markov chain model indicating a state and a state transition probability, and receives a parameter indicating status information according to the infectious disease transmission at a time point after t days have elapsed from a start of infection spread; a calculation unit that calculates the number of hidden infectious states through backward reasoning, and calculates the number of hidden infectious states through forward reasoning using the received parameter; an extraction unit that extracts an inverse scale coefficient using the calculated number of infection states and calculates a reproduction factor using the extracted inverse scale coefficient; and a prediction unit that updates infectious disease status information using the calculated reproduction factor, and predicts the number of hidden infectious persons using the updated infectious disease status information.