The invention relates to the field of analysis and excavation of social media data, and discloses a dynamic prediction method facing a microblog hot topic community. The method comprises the steps: obtaining data of the microblog hot topic community; carrying out formalized modeling on interactive data and defining a matrix which corresponds to the interactive data; generating a prediction model which is fused with various history interactive behaviors; carrying out solution of a modeling parameter according to history data of the hot topic community; and predicting the community and outputting a result. In addition, the invention further discloses a dynamic prediction system facing the microblog hot topic community. The method and the system can effectively obtain the data of the hot topic community, based on the prediction model, prediction is carried out through full use of the history data of the hot topic community, and accordingly a higher prediction accuracy rate is obtained, and the method and the system can well provide aid decision-making support for an operator or a government.