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发明公开
CN104156770A 基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力系统充裕度分析方法 无效 - 驳回

基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力系统充裕度分析方法
摘要：
本发明公开了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力系统充裕度分析方法，涉及电力系统充裕性分析领域。本发明基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力系统充裕度分析方法包括以下步骤：步骤a、收集元件数据形成系统信息；步骤b、对元件状态持续时间抽样形成系统状态序列；步骤c、对电力系统内各系统状态进行评估；步骤d、得到电力系统故障严重度。本发明基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力系统充裕度分析方法建立了考虑天气状态时充裕性评估的数学模型，提出了在灾害天气条件下系统元件故障率的计算方法，并采用基于元件状态持续时间抽样的蒙特卡罗模拟法，计算得出电网的评估结果，为电网的充裕度分析提供依据。
摘要（英）：

The invention discloses an electric power system adequacy analysis method based on a Monte Carlo simulation method, and relates to the field of electric power system adequacy analysis. The method comprises the following steps: step a, collecting element data to form system information; step b, sampling element state duration to form a system state sequence; step c, assessing each system state of an electric power system; and step d, obtaining the fault severity of the electric power system. According to the electric power system adequacy analysis method based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, an adequacy assessment mathematical model which takes weather conditions into consideration is established, a calculation method for a system element failure rate under a severe weather condition is brought forward, and an assessment result of a power network is calculated by use of the Monte Carlo simulation method based on element state duration sampling, such that a basis is provided for the adequacy analysis of the power network.

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