A life prediction method for an electric-propulsion hollow cathode based on tungsten top hole failure relates to the technical field of hollow cathode detection and aims to solve the problem that hollow cathode life evaluation is difficult. The life prediction method disclosed by the invention comprises the steps that a tungsten top hole erosion model is established at first; a hollow cathode used for simulation is put into the tungsten top hole erosion model for simulation; a time-based changing curve of air pressures inside the hollow cathode tungsten top hole simulated each time can be obtained; then, high-acceleration stress degeneration experiments are conducted to the hollow cathode with different to-be-predicted lives, so that a time-based changing curve of air pressures inside the hollow cathode tungsten top hole can be obtained; and finally, the two curves are compared. If the curves are consistent, the hollow cathodes with the maximum pressure and the minimum pressure inside the tungsten top hole in the hollow cathode with the to-be-predicted life are taken as standard hollow cathodes; the lives corresponding to the two standard hollow cathodes are taken as life scope end point values of the to-be-predicted life; and further, a life scope of the hollow cathode with the to-be-predicted life can be obtained.