The invention discloses a grid company operating profit forecasting method. The method comprises the steps that the historical operation data of a grid company are acquired; parameters affecting the operating profit of the grid company are determined, analyzed and predicted; a grid company operating profit forecasting model is established; the sensitivity of the parameters affecting the operatingprofit of the grid company to the profit is determined; the variation range of the parameters affecting the operating profit of the grid company is set; the probability distribution data of the operating profit of the grid company are acquired; and the operating profit of the grid company is forecasted. According to the invention, the analysis method comprehensively considering the constraints ofthe industry policies of the grid company, the variability of the macro economy, the revenues of the company, cost control, investment financing leverage and other factors is provided, and physical simulation and expert manual judgment correction are established; uncertainties in the forecast period are significantly reduced; the operating profit of the grid company in the coming years is forecasted; and the method has a great application value in analyzing the future operating risk and decision of the company.