A modulating heating system includes a tube heat exchanger having a plurality of burners, a combustion air blower (CAB) having an exhaust vent connected with the plurality of burners, the CAB operable at a first speed and a second speed, a first valve connecting a fuel source to a first subset of the plurality of burners, and a second valve connecting a fuel source to a second subset of the plurality of burners, wherein the first and second valves each have a low fire rate and a high fire rate. The heat exchanger is operable through multiple heat stages at a constant fuel-air mixture.