A method for improved traffic congestion estimation is provided using signal phase and timing data from traffic signals at intersections and probe data from vehicles traversing said intersections. An example method may include: identifying each of a plurality of paths through an intersection; identifying signal phase and timing data for each traffic light associated with each path through the intersection; receiving probe data for vehicles approaching or traversing the intersection; estimating a number of vehicles failing to traverse the intersection along a path through the intersection; estimating a congestion status of the path through the intersection based on the number of vehicles failing to traverse the intersection; and causing the congestion status to be provided to permit updating of a map to reflect the congestion status.