Techniques are described for modeling variations in correlation to facilitate analytic operations. In one or more embodiments, at least one computing device receives first metric data that tracks a first metric for a first target resource and second metric data that tracks a second metric for a second target resource. In response to receiving the first metric data and the second metric data, the at least one computing device generates a time-series of correlation values that tracks correlation between the first metric and the second metric over time. Based at least in part on the time-series of correlation data, an expected correlation is determined and compared to an observed correlation. If the observed correlation falls outside of a threshold range or otherwise does not satisfy the expected correlation, then an alert and/or other output may be generated.