Disclosed examples include heart rate monitor systems and methods to estimate a patient heart rate or rate of another pulsed signal, in which rate hypotheses or states, are identified for a current time window according to digital sample values of the pulsed signal for a current sample time window, and a rate change value is computed for potential rate transitions between states of the current and previous time windows. Transition pair branch metric values are computed as a function of the rate change value and a frequency domain amplitude of the corresponding rate hypothesis for the current time window, and the pulsed signal rate estimate is determined according to a maximum path metric computed according to the branch metric value and a corresponding path metric value for the previous time window.