A method and system for modeling trends in crop yields is provided. In an embodiment, the method comprises receiving, over a computer network, electronic digital data comprising yield data representing crop yields harvested from a plurality of agricultural fields and at a plurality of time points; in response to receiving input specifying a request to generate one or more particular yield data: determining one or more factors that impact yields of crops that were harvested from the plurality of agricultural fields; decomposing the yield data into decomposed yield data that identifies one or more data dependencies according to the one or more factors; generating, based on the decomposed yield data, the one or more particular yield data; generating forecasted yield data or reconstructing the yield data by incorporating the one or more particular yield data into the yield data.