Medical devices and related patient management systems and event detection methods are provided. An exemplary method of detecting events pertaining to operation of a medical device, such as an infusion device, involves obtaining measurements indicative of a condition in a body of a patient, determining statistics for an analysis interval based on the measurements, and determining an event probability associated with the analysis interval based on historical event data associated with the patient. An event detection model associated with the patient is obtained and applied to the statistics and the event probability to identify occurrence of the event using the event detection model, and in response, an indication of the event associated with the analysis interval is provided, for example, by tagging or marking data in a database, displaying graphical indicia of the event, or the like.