Methods, systems, and apparatus include computer programs encoded on a computer-readable storage medium, including a method for providing content. Data specifying a post-install activity is received from a provider of an application. An opportunity is identified to provide third-party content to a user. A likelihood is determined that the user will perform the specified post-install activity based on one or more attributes of the user and attributes of users that have previously performed the specified post-install activity in the application. A selection value is adjusted for third-party content that identifies the application based on the determined likelihood, wherein the selection value increases as the likelihood increases. The third-party content identifying the application is selected based on the adjusted selection value. The third-party content identifying the application is distributed to a client device of the user.