A relationship relating a load of exercise and a user's aerobic capacity may be determined as follows. A processor circuit of a device may retrieve, from a memory, a prior probability distribution of the load of exercise and a prior probability distribution of the user's aerobic capacity. The processor circuit may compute a joint prior probability of the load of exercise and the user's aerobic capacity. The processor circuit may compute a joint likelihood of the load of exercise and the user's aerobic capacity based on data indicative of a measured time-stamped work rate and a measured time-stamped heart rate. The processor circuit may combine the joint prior probability and the joint likelihood to produce a joint posterior probability. The processor circuit may use the joint posterior probability to determine a relationship relating the load of exercise and the user's aerobic capacity and output a calorie calculation.