According to an aspect, a method includes predicting, by a processor, a projected oil-wetted metal temperature in a lubrication system of a gas turbine engine at shutdown based on one or more thermal models prior to shutdown of the gas turbine engine. The processor determines a coking index based on the projected oil-wetted metal temperature and a coking limit threshold associated with one or more engine components. An oil coking mitigation action is triggered as a shutdown management event of the gas turbine engine based on the coking index.