A system may include at least one processor configured to receive a fuel signal indicative of an amount of fuel supplied to a cylinder of an internal combustion engine, receive an air signal indicative of a quantity of air supplied to the cylinder, and estimate a mean effective pressure in the cylinder based at least in part on the fuel signal and the air signal. The system may estimate an exhaust gas temperature for exhaust gas entering an exhaust manifold associated with the internal combustion engine, generate a rate of temperature change value for the exhaust manifold based at least in part on the exhaust gas temperature, generate an estimated exhaust manifold temperature based at least in part on the rate of temperature change value for the exhaust manifold, and estimate an exhaust gas temperature for exhaust gas exiting the exhaust manifold and entering a turbine of a turbocharger.