A control system for identifying and responding to effective system changes in a monitored system includes data collection, change identification, classifier construction, effective system change and parameter adjustment modules. The data collection module tracks parameters of the monitored system. The change identification module, based on the parameters, identifies: during training, performance changes and first system changes; and post training, a set of performance changes and second system changes. The classifier construction module, based on the performance changes and the first system changes construct a performance-system change classifier module. The performance-system change classifier module, based on the set of performance changes, determines possible system changes and respective probability values. The effective system change module, based on the second and possible system changes, determines effective system changes and respective probability values. The parameter adjustment module controls an actuator of the monitored system based on the effective system changes and the probability values.