Method, system, and programs for measuring user engagement. In one example, a model generated based on user activities with respect to a plurality pieces of content is obtained. One or more actual occurrences of the user activities with respect to one piece of the plurality pieces of content are identified. One or more future occurrences of the user activities with respect to the piece of content are estimated based on the model. A user engagement score with respect to the piece of content is calculated based on the one or more actual occurrences of the user activities and the one or more future occurrences of the user activities.