A model predictive maintenance system for building equipment that performs operations including obtaining an objective function defining a cost of operating and performing maintenance on the equipment as a function of operating and maintenance decisions for time steps within a time period of a life cycle horizon and including performing a first computation of the objective function under a first scenario where maintenance is performed on the equipment during the period, a result of the first computation indicating a first cost. The operations include performing a second computation under a second scenario in which maintenance is not performed during the period, a result indicating a second cost. The operations include initiating an automated action to perform maintenance on the equipment in accordance with decisions defined by the first scenario if the first cost is less than or equal to the second cost.