A current memory access voltage distribution is measured for a memory page of a block family associated with a first voltage bin of a plurality of voltage bins at a memory device. The first voltage bin is associated with a first voltage offset. A current value for a reference voltage is determined based on the current memory access voltage distribution measured for the memory page. An amount of voltage shift for the memory page is determined based on the current value for the reference voltage a prior value for the reference voltage. The prior value for the reference voltage is associated with a prior memory access voltage distribution for the memory page. In response to a determination that the amount of voltage shift satisfies a voltage shift criterion, the block family is associated with a second voltage bin of the plurality of voltage bins. The second voltage bin is associated with a second voltage offset.