A method of monitoring a conveyance apparatus within a conveyance system is provided. The method including: obtaining a starting location position probability distribution of the conveyance apparatus within the conveyance system; detecting motion of the conveyance apparatus away from the probable starting location for a period of time; determining a distance traveled by the conveyance apparatus during the period of time; determining a direction of motion of the conveyance apparatus during the period of time; and determining a probability of the conveyance apparatus being at each of a plurality of possible destination locations at a conclusion of the period of time in response to the starting location position probability distribution and at least one of the distance traveled, the direction of motion, and the period of time.