The present disclosure relates to computer-implemented methods, software, and systems for predicting failure event occurrence for a machine asset. Run-to-failure sequences of time series data that include an occurrence of a failure event for the machine asset are received. One or more candidate cut-off values are determined based on iterative evaluation of a plurality of potential cut-off points. A candidate cut-off value is identified as substantially corresponding to a local peak point for calculated distances between relative frequency distributions of positive and negative sub-sequences. A failure prediction model is iteratively trained to iteratively extract sets of relevant features to determine a prediction horizon for an occurrence of the failure event for the machine asset. A candidate cut-off value associated with a model of highest quality from a set of failure prediction models determined during the iterations is selected to determine the prediction horizon for the machine asset.