Systems and methods for generating a content item based on a difference between a user confidence score and a confidence score are disclosed. For example, a system generates for output a first content item. While the first content item is being outputted, the system receives user data via sensors of a device. The system determines a user confidence score based on the user data and metadata of the first content item. The user confidence score indicates a user's perceived probability of an event occurring in the future. The system calculates a prediction score which estimates the likelihood of the event occurring in the future. In response to determining that the difference between the user confidence score and the prediction score exceeds a threshold, the system selects a second content item related to the event and generates for output a recommendation comprising an identifier of the second content item.