Systems and methods are disclosed for predicting consumer spending behavior based on historical purchase activity progressions. One method includes: receiving transaction data related to two or more past payment transactions of a consumer; receiving environmental and/or behavioral data associated with each of the past payment transactions; determining, based on the transaction data and environmental and/or behavioral data, historical purchase activity progressions, wherein each of the historical purchase activity progressions identifies one or more trends in environmental and/or behavioral data; receiving transaction data related to a current payment transaction of the consumer; receiving environmental and/or behavioral data associated with the current payment transaction; comparing the environmental and/or behavioral data associated with one or more of the past payment transactions with environmental and/or behavioral data associated with the current payment transaction; and determining whether a progression of one or more of the past payment transactions to the current payment transaction maps to one of the historical purchase activity progressions.