In one embodiment, a device obtains path metrics for a network path via which traffic for an online application is conveyed. The device models uncertainty of an application experience metric predicted for the online application based on the path metrics. The device identifies, based on the uncertainty of the application experience metric modeled by the device, a breaking point in the path metrics at which the application experience metric predicted for the online application is expected to switch from being acceptable to being degraded. The device provides the breaking point in the path metrics for display.