Impending rollover events are detected by recognizing a plow phase increase in lateral acceleration, coupled with a significant trip phase roll rate. The plow phase increase is recognized by modeling a typical soil trip lateral acceleration characteristic and computing a cross-correlation between the measured lateral acceleration and the modeled acceleration. The correlation is compared to a threshold that varies with the measured roll rate to reliably discriminate rollover events from near-rollover events while enabling timely deployment of suitable occupant restraints.