A method for treating or preventing cardiovascular pathologies by administering a compound of the formula (I): wherein Z is C═O or a covalent bond; Y is H or O(C1-C4)alkyl, R1 and R2 are individually (C1-C4)alkyl or together with N are a saturated heterocyclic group, R3 is ethyl or chloroethyl, R4 is H, R5 is I, O(C1-C4)alkyl or H and R6 is I, O(C1-C4)alkyl or H with the proviso that when R4, R5, and R6 are H, R3 is not ethyl; or a pharmaceutically acceptable salt thereof, effective to elevate the level of TGF-beta to treat and/or prevent conditions such as atherosclerosis, thrombosis, myocardial infarction, and stroke is provided. Useful compounds include idoxifene, toremifene or salts thereof. Further provided is a method for identifying an agent that elevates the level of TGF-beta. Another embodiment of the invention is an assay or kit to determine TGF-beta in vitro. Also provided is a therapeutic method comprising inhibiting smooth muscle cell proliferation associated with procedural vascular trauma employing the administration of tamoxifin or structural analogs thereof, including compounds of formula (I).