Apparatus and methods are provided for analyzing an episode stored by an implantable medical device (IMD) using prior probability and conditional probability information to determine the likelihood of a particular diagnosis for a given stored episode. Certain embodiments include retrieving information about a stored episode from an IMD, including an episode metric, and retrieving domain expert information about potential diagnoses and episode metrics to determine the likelihood that the stored episode was due to a particular potential diagnosis. Certain embodiments also include retrieving patient information including a patient metric, such as patient demographics, or patient history. Certain embodiments of the invention include the ability to automatically or manually update or change the domain expert information.