One embodiment of the present invention provides a system that times commercial offers made to a user. During operation, the system starts by receiving financial history data for the user, wherein the financial history data includes purchase records for a set of purchases. The system then identifies a subset of purchases in the set of purchases, wherein the subset of purchases are semantically linked to a set of predetermined subjects. Next, the system identifies timing patterns in the subset of purchases based on timing information associated with the subset of purchases. The system then presents one or more commercial offers to the user at specific times based on the identified timing patterns.