A performance projection system includes a test IHS and a currently existing IHS. The performance projection system includes surrogate programs and user application software. The test IHS or simulator includes a processor with hardware (HW) counter(s) and an L1 cache. The test IHS employs a memory that includes a virtual future IHS, currently existing IHS, surrogate programs, and user application software for determination of runtime and HW counter performance data. The user application software and surrogate programs execute on the currently existing IHS to provide designers with runtime data and HW counter or microarchitecture dependent data. Designers execute surrogate programs on the future IHS to provide runtime and HW counter data. Designers normalize and weight the runtime and HW counter data to provide a representative surrogate program for comparison to user application software performance on the future IHS. Using a scaling factor, designers may generate a projection of runtime performance for the user application software executing on the future IHS.