Inferring purchase intent using non-payment transaction signals predicts whether a payment transaction has been completed based on non-payment information. An account system that operates outside of the payment path does not take part in and the approval of a financial transaction between the user and the merchant system, distributes an offer to the user. The user completes a financial payment transaction with the merchant and the account system determines whether a trigger event has occurred. The user performs an action or enters information using the user computing device, and the user computing device transmits an indication of the action to the account system. In another example, the account system receives notification from another system or device. The account system determines whether the action is a trigger event and the predictive model determines whether the user completed a financial transaction and/or redeemed the distributed offer.