A system, method and program product for evaluating energy suppliers from a set of energy suppliers to meet demand for a distribution grid. A system is disclosed that includes: a bid volatility index (BVI) calculator that determines a BVI for each supplier for an offer; a profiling system that profiles each supplier with a set of predictor variables; a ranking system that determines a winning bid probability of each supplier based on the predictor variables; a modeling system that refines the winning bid probability based on changes to at least one predictor variable; and a scoring system that determines a confidence score for each supplier, wherein the confidence score indicates a confidence level that the supplier can meet the offer.