In some examples, a system includes an oxygen saturation sensing device configured to sense an oxygen saturation level of a patient and processing circuitry. The processing circuitry may be configured to receive a signal indicative of the oxygen saturation level of the patient, determine that the signal indicates the oxygen saturation level is at or below a desaturation threshold, and in response to determining the oxygen saturation level of the patient is at or below the desaturation threshold, predict, using an oxygen saturation prediction model, whether the oxygen saturation level of the patient will increase above the desaturation threshold by the end of a predefined time period. In response to predicting that the oxygen saturation level of the patient will increase above the desaturation threshold by the end of the predefined time period, the processing circuitry refrains from outputting an indication of the patient experiencing an oxygen desaturation event.