Methods and systems disclosed herein relate generally to systems and methods for using a machine-learning model to predict user-engagement levels of users in response to presentation of future interactive content. A content provider system accesses a machine-learning model, which was trained using a training dataset including previous user-device actions performed by a plurality of users in response to previous interactive content. The content provider system receives user-activity data of a particular user and applies the machine-learning model to the user-activity data, in which the user-activity data includes user-device actions performed by the particular user in response to interactive content. The machine-learning model generates an output including a categorical value that represents a predicted user-engagement level of the particular user in response to a presentation of the future interactive content.