A heating, ventilation, and/or air conditioning (HVAC) system includes a control system configured to initiate an operating cycle of a furnace of the HVAC system at an initial operating stage in response to a call for heating, monitor a duration of time associated with the operating cycle of the furnace to satisfy the call for heating, adjust the initial operating stage to provide an adjusted initial operating stage of the furnace based on the duration of time, and initiate a subsequent operating cycle of the furnace at the adjusted initial operating stage.