A heating, ventilation, or air conditioning (HVAC) system for a building includes HVAC equipment configured to provide heating or cooling to one or more building spaces and one or more controllers. The one or more controllers include one or more processing circuits configured to generate energy targets for the one or more building spaces using a thermal capacitance of the one or more building spaces to which the heating or cooling is provided by the HVAC equipment, generate setpoints for the HVAC equipment using the energy targets for the one or more building spaces to which the heating or cooling is provided by the HVAC equipment, and operate the HVAC equipment using the setpoints to provide the heating or cooling to the one or more building spaces.