A method for detecting and reporting an aircraft diversion event includes receiving a continuous real-time surveillance stream via a server from a real-time surveillance system. The surveillance stream describes respective flight trajectories a population of aircraft in a defined three-dimensional (3D) airspace. The method also includes accessing historical flight information, via a processor, regarding past flight trajectories in the 3D airspace, and accessing navigation data. Additionally, the method includes calculating, via the server using the surveillance stream, historical flight information, and navigation data, at least one probability of diversion (POD) metric indicative of a probability that a subject aircraft in the population of aircraft is experiencing the aircraft diversion event. The method includes transmitting a diversion alert signal to one or more user devices when the POD metric exceeds a calibrated POD threshold limit, the diversion alert signal being indicative of the aircraft diversion event.