A prediction method includes: measuring an actual shape of a rolling reference tire; acquiring a displacement profile as a change in the actual shape due to rolling; calculating displacement amounts of order components of first to Nth orders (N is an integer of 2 or more) in the displacement profile through fast Fourier transform; obtaining, as a quantitative index value, a reciprocal of a sum of displacement amounts of order components reflecting a change in the actual shape due to a sign of the standing wave phenomenon, and acquiring a correlation between a performance index value representing durability of the reference tire and the quantitative index value; and simulating rolling of the reference tire to estimate a virtual quantitative index value corresponding to the quantitative index value, and acquiring a correlation between the virtual quantitative index value and the quantitative index value.