A control and method for an internal combustion engine that includes an exhaust gas recirculation system to predict an intake manifold critical temperature (dew point) at which condensation would occur upon entry into exhaust gas recirculation. The control calculates the intake manifold critical temperature (IMT_Critical) as a function of predetermined, sensed or assumed values by processing an equation whose variables are occupied by the values. The control commands adjustments of exhaust gas recirculation operation in response to the calculation, preferably after the actual intake manifold temperature exceeds the IMT_Critical for a predetermined time.