A video transcoder for converting an encoded input video bit-stream having one spatial resolution into an encoded output video bit-stream having a lower spatial resolution, wherein learned statistics of intra-mode transcoding are used to constrain the search of intra modes for the output video bit-stream. The statistics of intra-mode transcoding can be gathered, e.g., by applying brute-force downsizing to a training set of video frames and then analyzing the observed intra-mode transcoding patterns to determine a transition-probability matrix for use during normal operation of the transcoder. The transition-probability matrix enables the transcoder to select appropriate intra modes for the output video bit-stream without performing a corresponding exhaustive full search, which advantageously reduces the computational complexity and processor load compared to those of a comparably performing prior-art video transcoder.