A system and method for providing target selection and threat assessment for vehicle collision avoidance purposes that employ probability analysis of radar scan returns. The system determines a travel path of a host vehicle and provides a radar signal transmitted from a sensor on the host vehicle. The system receives multiple scan return points from detected objects, processes the scan return points to generate a distribution signal defining a contour of each detected object, and processes the scan return points to provide a position, a translation velocity and an angular velocity of each detected object. The system selects the objects that may enter the travel path of the host vehicle, and makes a threat assessment of those objects by comparing a number of scan return points that indicate that the object may enter the travel path to the number of the scan points that are received for that object.