A forecasting cohort includes a first set of forecasting algorithms and a second set of forecasting algorithms. An initial confidence level and a half-life of each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms are determined. A half-life weight for each of the first set of forecasting algorithms and the second set of forecasting algorithms at a subsequent time are determined, such that the half-life weights decrease an effect of a forecasting algorithm as time elapses. A combined confidence level of the forecasting cohort at the subsequent time is determined and used to adjust resource usage.